Myanmar is smaller than you think

According to the just-completed census — the first since 1983 — Myanmar’s population is only 51.4 million, 15% less than the previous best guess, as reported in the NYT.  And it’s not only because they excluded the Rohingya, even though those who self-identified as such were not counted. So, if the population (which was 35.4m in 1983) grew at an average 1.2% per year instead of the predicted 1.7%, what accounts for most of the difference? Overestimate of birth rate, or underestimate of death rate? Unpacking this might tell us something about health status and behavior in the population.

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